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Princeton Professors Claim Facebook will Drop by 80% in the Next Three Years

Princeton Professors Claim Facebook will Drop by 80% in the Next Three Years

by Barry Burch Jr.

If you ask your average 13-year-old what their favorite form of social media is, you might be surprised to find out that Facebook is not it.  The site actually may even fall outside their top three.  According to a recent study performed at Princeton, that’s just the beginning.

The research compares ”adoption and abandonment dynamics” of social networks by “drawing an analogy to the dynamics that govern the spread of infectious disease,” as reported by  The report concluded with a prediction – “Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80 percent of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.”

The researchers state, “Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models.”  In other words, diseases like the measles and social media sites like Myspace are synonymous.  Initially, people are quickly infected; however as time thickens a peak is reached and there is just as quick of a decline.  Myspace was used as a case study example, as reported by  The site proved to be the perfect analogy of a full beginning to the end cycle.

But will Facebook really suffer the same fate as Myspace?  The study claims it will.  “Idea manifesters ultimately lose interest with the idea and no longer manifest the idea, which can be thought of as the gain of ‘immunity’ to the idea,” state the researchers.

Despite convincing evidence in the report, it should still be noted that although the authors are intelligent, they are based in the school’s department of mechanical and aerospace engineering, as reported by  This department is not particularly known for predicting the future of social networks.  The journal that the article appears in, Arvix, is also not peer-reviewed.

Barry is a student of life.  Other than writing, he enjoys arithmetic and politics.  Reach him @ 

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